Talking Horses: The latest news and best bets in our daily horse racing blog
Stat of the day
Any trainer can maintain a good strike-rate at a course where they’ve had just a handful of runners but Rebecca Curtis is on an impressive 33% at Hereford after sending 46 horses there. She runs Family Three, the 11-4 second-favourite in the maiden hurdle at 2.40pm.
Tuesday’s best bets, by Chris Cook
Each horse that has won at Southwell must, at some point, have done so for the first time and I suppose there are probably horses at each race meeting at the Newark track that achieve their first successes there. When that happens, you may be certain that I haven’t backed the winner (no sniggering, please), because I am one of those punters who insists on proven course form at Southwell.
Not, of course, that I bet there all that often because I do like a bit of quality with my racing, but the demands of the Fibresand circuit there are so unlike anything else on the Flat in this country that taking a flying on an untried horse being able to cope does not appeal. This kind of thinking is part of what has led me to Storm Hawk (4.30) today.
The five-year-old has won three times from four visits, all on his last four starts. The fitting of blinkers may also have helped. He is 6lb higher than for his most recent win, this month, which should certainly not prevent him from giving his running.
The blot on his record relates to a race in mid-February when the early pace was weak and, as a hold-up horse, he was unsuited. He took all the kickback and never got into the argument. Hopefully, that will not be an issue today, with Taikoo and Sherman McCoy both able to set the pace, while Bedouin Bay can also force the issue.
Even so, someone doesn’t fancy Storm Hawk much, as he’s out to 7-1, much bigger than is suggested by his form claims. This is a tough contest, though, and I should not that Captain Bellamy’s course record is even more impressive at four wins from five. His last three wins have been at two miles, however, and this shorter trip may not help.
Coolagad Wonder, my original fancy for today’s competition race from Hereford, is a non-runner, so I’ll side with Truckers Benefit, making his handicap debut for Tim Vaughan and likely to appreciate the return to a decent surface. He is 5-1, just a couple of points shorter than Truckers Princess (good luck to the commentators).
Kim Bailey’s season is picking up again, his five winners in March being three more than he managed in January and February combined. His Charles (4.20) appeals in Market Rasen’s two-mile handicap hurdle, running for the first time since he was beaten just a head in a 13-runner race at Uttoxeter in September.
A sound surface is also important to him and he has presumably been saved through the winter for that reason. He’s 3-1.
Tipping competition, day two
Xwireman, twig28 and VolleVlug have bounced out to an early lead, picking Catherines Call (14-1), who won under a fine ride by the promising Danny Brock. Nadhr79, geegeez and carl31 had both the other winners, Jolly Boys Outing (4-1) and Cecily Parsley (9-4).
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 4.10 Hereford, 4.20 Market Rasen, 4.30 Southwell.
This week’s prize is a copy of Racehorses of 2011, the latest annual from the highly respected Timeform team. Weighing in at 1,232 pages, embellished with almost 100 essays on leading performers and more than 300 pictures, it is the definitive record of the last Flat season and a moutwatering preview of the next. It costs £79 but will be yours for free if you win this week, failing which you can buy it here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -3.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
Standings after day one
xwireman +12
twig28 +12
VolleVlug +12
nadhr79 +5.25
geegeez +5.25
carl31 +5.25
johnny909 +2
factormax +2
jaygee1 +2
Thewrongtree +2
tom1977 +2
BearRides +2
tanias +2
zizkov123 +2
JDK1 +2
Moscow08 +2
chris1623 +2
ToffeeDan1 +2
SmokingGun1 +0.25
genesismama57 +0.25
burnleyjim +0.25
moidadem +0.25
shears39 +0.25
Yossarian24 +0.25
cptbeaky +0.25
WalthamstowLad +0.25
gildedvanity +0.25
Ellandback +0.25
GForce1 +0.25
Talos77 +0.25
gbettle +0.25
davo10 -3
Fixxxer -3
Mai11 -3
SussexRH -3
TL127 -3
sangfroid -3
JimmyDeuce -3
sandiuk -3
wiggy12 -3
elbonjourno -3
slackdad38 -3
JahLion -3
melonk -3
waltersobchak -3
unfaircomment -3
kenty58 -3
Lindsey6677 -3
Harrytheactor -3
Blitzwing -3
diegoisgod -3
Ormrod76 -3
millreef -3
suckzinclee -3
Toptrapper -3
natwho -3
mcyoung -3
scandalous -3
Dangalf -3
titusisashambles -3
noodlearms -3
rankingdread -3
chipsolderer -3
23skidoo -3
TheVic -3
chiefhk -3
kingklynch -3
allowster -3
Shrewdette -3
orso -3
Copshaw -3
Click here for all the day’s racecards, form, stats and results.
And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
